In January 2025, Bitcoin retail investors have sent 6,000 BTC to Binance, indicating early profit-taking despite the absence of a full-fledged bull market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin whales are refraining from major selling, opting to wait for potentially higher gains. On-chain data from Crypto Quant highlights this divergence in investor behavior.
Retail Bitcoin Investors Cash Out as Whales Hold Steady:
on-chain data from Crypto Quant shows that retail Bitcoin investors have sent 6,000 BTC (worth approximately $625 million) to Binance in January 2025, signaling their belief that the bull market may be over for now. In contrast, whales—considered “smart money” with the ability to influence short-term price movements—are refraining from major sales. This divergence in behavior highlights a common pattern where retail investors and whales act oppositely in the market.
Binance BTC inflows by investor cohort. Source: Crypto Quant
Whale inflows to Binance in January totaled around 1,000 BTC ($104 million), indicating minimal profit-taking. In contrast, retail investors are increasing their Bitcoin deposits, reflecting a stronger selling trend. Crypto Quant analyst Dark Fost highlights this divergence, noting that following whale behavior is often a smarter strategy. Charts confirm that retail inflows are rising while whale inflows remain low.
Bitcoin Retail Interest Resets, Signaling More Room for Growth
Analyst FCM research using the RSI of Google Trends data shows that mainstream interest in Bitcoin has “reset” after a surge when BTC/USD reached all-time highs last year. Identifying five key phases of retail interest in each cycle, FCM’s notes that Bitcoin has just completed phase 3 (ATH move), with phase 4 (First Cycle Top) expected next. Historical trends suggest that interest peaks just before major highs, indicating that the current bull run still has room to grow before reaching a macro top.
Worldwide Google search data for “Bitcoin.” Source: Google Trends
Google Trends RSI data for “Bitcoin.” Source: CryptoCon/X
As,FCM estimates of how high BTC/USD could end the current cycle vary significantly but frequently include $150,000 or more.
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